Du bao tang gia Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh
Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh voi quy mo 6.206ha va tong von 18 ty USD dang duoc du bao se tao ra dot tang gia manh tai khu vuc Quang Ninh. Bai viet phan tich chi tiet tiem nang tang gia Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh theo 3 kich ban, dong thoi chi ra thoi diem toi uu de nha dau tu "vao tien" hieu qua nhat.
Noi dung bai viet
1 Yeu to dan dat gia BDS khu vuc
Truoc khi di vao cac kich ban cu the, can hieu ro nhung yeu to co ban dang dan dat gia bat dong san tai khu vuc Quang Ninh noi chung va Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh noi rieng.
1.1 Nguon cung han che, cau tang manh
Quang Ninh hien la mot trong nhung thi truong co ty le hap thu bat dong san cao nhat mien Bac. Nguon cung du an moi han che trong khi nhu cau tu ca nha o va dau tu deu tang manh. Viec Ha Long Xanh duoc phe duyet quy hoach se tao them nguon cung nhung dong thoi cung keo theo luong cau lon tu cac nha dau tu ca nuoc.
1.2 Ha tang giao thong dong bo
He thong cao toc Ha Noi - Hai Phong - Quang Ninh da hoan thanh, rut ngan thoi gian di chuyen tu Ha Noi ve Ha Long con 1.5-2 gio. Cac du an cau Cua Luc, mo rong san bay Van Don va de xuat duong sat toc do cao deu se day gia bat dong san len cao.
Kinh nghiem tu cac thi truong truoc cho thay:
- Bat dong san quanh cao toc Long Thanh - Dau Giay tang 50-80% sau 5 nam
- Khu vuc Gia Lam (Ha Noi) tang 40-60% sau khi Vinhomes Ocean Park mo ban
- Bat dong san Hai Phong tang 30-50% sau khi cao toc Ha Noi - Hai Phong hoan thanh
- Phu Quoc tang 100-200% sau khi san bay quoc te di vao hoat dong
1.3 Du lich tang truong ky luc
Quang Ninh don 19 trieu luot khach nam 2024 va dat muc tieu 25 trieu luot vao 2028. Dong khach du lich khong lo nay tao ra nhu cau luu tru, nghi duong va thuong mai, truc tiep day gia bat dong san nghi duong va cho thue len cao.
1.4 Hieu ung thuong hieu Vingroup
Moi du an Vingroup cong bo deu tao ra hieu ung tang gia lan toa. Du lieu lich su cho thay:
| Du an Vinhomes | Tang gia nam 1 | Tang gia sau 3 nam |
|---|---|---|
| Vinhomes Ocean Park | +15-20% | +40-60% |
| Vinhomes Grand Park | +10-15% | +35-50% |
| Vinhomes Royal Island | +12-18% | Dang cap nhat |
| Vinhomes Smart City | +10-15% | +30-45% |
1.5 Chinh sach tien te va lai suat
Moi truong lai suat thap tiep tuc ho tro thi truong bat dong san. Lai suat cho vay mua nha hien o muc 7-9%/nam, thap hon dang ke so voi giai doan 2022-2023 (12-14%). Dong tien re khien bat dong san tro thanh kenh dau tu hap dan hon so voi gui tiet kiem.
Ngoai ra, chinh sach ho tro tin dung bat dong san du lich nghi duong cua Chinh phu cung la dong luc tich cuc cho cac du an nhu Ha Long Xanh.
2 Kich ban lac quan: Tang +20-30% trong 2-3 nam
Xac suat xay ra: 30-35%
Kich ban nay xay ra khi tat ca cac yeu to tich cuc cung dong thoi tac dong.
Dieu kien de kich ban lac quan xay ra
- Ha tang vuot tien do: Cau Cua Luc 3, mo rong san bay Van Don hoan thanh som hon du kien
- Du lich vuot muc tieu: Quang Ninh don tren 22 trieu khach nam 2027, vuot ke hoach
- Chinh sach ho tro: Chinh phu tiep tuc noi long tin dung BDS, lai suat duy tri thap
- FDI tang manh: Von dau tu nuoc ngoai vao Quang Ninh tang tren 20%/nam
- Duong sat toc do cao duoc phe duyet: Tuyen Ha Noi - Ha Long duoc phe duyet va khoi cong
Du bao gia theo phan khuc
| Phan khuc | Gia hien tai (du kien) | Gia du bao 2028 | Muc tang |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can ho | 1.8 - 5.5 ty | 2.3 - 7.1 ty | +25-30% |
| Biet thu | 8 - 15 ty | 10 - 19.5 ty | +25-30% |
| Shophouse | 12 - 25 ty | 14.4 - 32.5 ty | +20-30% |
Trong kich ban lac quan, biet thu view bien va shophouse mat tien se la hai phan khuc tang gia manh nhat nho loi the khan hiem va kha nang khai thac kinh doanh. Can ho co the tang cham hon nhung van dat muc tang an tuong nho nhu cau cho thue nghi duong tang manh.
Dac biet, cac san pham o giai doan dau mo ban thuong co muc tang gia tot nhat, do duoc huong chenh lech gia giua cac dot mo ban. Kinh nghiem tu Vinhomes Ocean Park cho thay gia dot mo ban sau thuong cao hon dot truoc 5-10%.
3 Kich ban trung tinh: Tang +10-15% trong 2-3 nam
Xac suat xay ra: 45-50%
Day la kich ban co xac suat xay ra cao nhat, phu hop voi xu huong tang truong on dinh cua thi truong.
Dieu kien kich ban trung tinh
- Ha tang dung tien do: Cac du an giao thong hoan thanh theo ke hoach, khong co dot pha lon
- Du lich tang on dinh: Quang Ninh dat 20-22 trieu khach nam 2027
- Lai suat on dinh: Lai suat cho vay BDS duy tri muc 8-10%/nam
- Kinh te vi mo tang truong: GDP Viet Nam tang 6-7%/nam nhu du bao
- Tien do du an dung ke hoach: Ha Long Xanh trien khai tung giai doan theo lo trinh
Du bao gia theo phan khuc
| Phan khuc | Gia hien tai (du kien) | Gia du bao 2028 | Muc tang |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can ho | 1.8 - 5.5 ty | 2.0 - 6.3 ty | +12-15% |
| Biet thu | 8 - 15 ty | 8.8 - 17.2 ty | +10-15% |
| Shophouse | 12 - 25 ty | 13.2 - 28.7 ty | +10-15% |
Trong kich ban trung tinh, muc tang gia 10-15% trong 2-3 nam van la ket qua tot hon dang ke so voi gui tiet kiem ngan hang (hien khoang 5-6%/nam). Dac biet, nha dau tu su dung don bay tai chinh hop ly co the dat ty suat loi nhuan tren von tu co (ROE) len toi 25-35%.
Vi du tinh toan cu the
Truong hop: Mua can ho 3 ty dong, vay 70% ngan hang
- Von tu co: 900 trieu dong
- Vay ngan hang: 2.1 ty dong, lai suat 8.5%/nam
- Sau 2 nam, gia tang 12%: can ho tri gia 3.36 ty dong
- Loi nhuan gop: 360 trieu dong
- Tru chi phi lai vay 2 nam: ~357 trieu dong
- Loi nhuan rong (neu ban): ~3 trieu dong (hoa von)
- Sau 3 nam, gia tang 15%: can ho tri gia 3.45 ty dong, loi nhuan rong ~90 trieu (ROE ~10%)
* Luu y: Tinh toan mang tinh tham khao, chua tinh phi giao dich va thue.
Neu ket hop cho thue nghi duong, ty suat loi nhuan se cao hon dang ke. Can ho tai cac khu do thi nghi duong Vingroup thuong dat ty suat cho thue 6-8%/nam, giup bu dap chi phi lai vay va tao them dong tien duong.
4 Kich ban than trong: Tang +5-8% trong 2-3 nam
Xac suat xay ra: 15-20%
Kich ban nay xay ra khi co nhung yeu to bat loi tac dong den thi truong.
Dieu kien kich ban than trong
- Ha tang cham tien do: Mot so du an giao thong bi cham 1-2 nam so voi ke hoach
- Du lich bi anh huong: Suy thoai kinh te toan cau lam giam luong khach quoc te
- Lai suat tang tro lai: Lai suat cho vay BDS len tren 10%/nam
- Thi truong BDS tram lang: Thanh khoan chung cua thi truong giam
- Canh tranh tu du an khac: Sun Group, FLC day manh mo ban tao ap luc nguon cung
Du bao gia theo phan khuc
| Phan khuc | Gia hien tai (du kien) | Gia du bao 2028 | Muc tang |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can ho | 1.8 - 5.5 ty | 1.9 - 5.9 ty | +5-8% |
| Biet thu | 8 - 15 ty | 8.4 - 16.2 ty | +5-8% |
| Shophouse | 12 - 25 ty | 12.6 - 27 ty | +5-8% |
Ngay ca trong kich ban than trong nhat, gia Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh van duoc du bao tang 5-8%, cao hon lam phat trung binh. Dieu nay cho thay tinh an toan tuong doi cua viec dau tu vao du an, dac biet la cac san pham o giai doan dau.
Tai sao kich ban giam gia kho xay ra?
Co nhieu ly do khien kich ban giam gia tai Ha Long Xanh kho xay ra:
- Thuong hieu Vingroup: Chu dau tu co chinh sach gia ban co dinh theo dot, khong ha gia
- Nguon cung co kiem soat: Vingroup mo ban theo tung giai doan, khong xung gia thi truong
- Gia tri noi tai: Du an co vi tri doc nhat tiep giap Vinh Ha Long UNESCO
- Chi phi dau vao tang: Chi phi xay dung, vat lieu, nhan cong deu tang hang nam
- Xu huong dai han: Bat dong san nghi duong tai Viet Nam dang trong chu ky tang truong dai han
Luu y quan trong: Cac du bao tren dua tren phan tich du lieu lich su va xu huong hien tai. Gia BDS co the bien dong do nhieu yeu to khach quan. Nha dau tu can can nhac ky truoc khi quyet dinh va khong nen dau tu qua kha nang tai chinh.
5 Thoi diem toi uu de vao tien
Xac dinh thoi diem "vao tien" dung la yeu to quyet dinh ty suat loi nhuan cua nha dau tu. Dua tren phan tich cac yeu to tren, duoi day la cac moc thoi gian quan trong can theo doi.
5.1 Giai doan 1: Mo ban dot dau (Thoi diem vang)
Day la thoi diem co gia tot nhat vi chu dau tu thuong ap dung chinh sach uu dai dac biet de kich cau: chiet khau 5-15%, tang goi noi that, ho tro lai suat 0% trong 18-24 thang. Gia mo ban dot dau thuong thap hon 10-15% so voi cac dot sau.
5.2 Giai doan 2: Truoc khi ha tang hoan thanh
Giai doan truoc khi cac cong trinh ha tang chinh (cau Cua Luc, duong ket noi) hoan thanh la thoi diem co ty suat sinh loi cao. Gia thuong tang manh 10-15% ngay sau khi ha tang duoc thong xe.
5.3 Giai doan 3: Khi tien do xay dung dat 50-70%
Khi du an da hinh thanh ro net voi tien do xay dung dat 50-70%, nha dau tu co the "thay thi" duoc san pham thuc te. Day la thoi diem an toan hon nhung gia da tang so voi dot mo ban dau.
Chien luoc dau tu theo tung phan khuc
| Phan khuc | Thoi diem vao | Chien luoc | Thoi gian giu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can ho | Dot mo ban dau | Cho thue + tang gia | 3-5 nam |
| Biet thu | Giai doan dau | Giu dai han, cho thue nghi duong | 5-10 nam |
| Shophouse | Khi cu dan bat dau don ve | Kinh doanh + tang gia | 5-7 nam |
Tong ket du bao tang gia
Voi ca 3 kich ban, Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh deu duoc du bao tang gia trong trung va dai han. Thoi diem tot nhat de vao tien la giai doan mo ban dau khi duoc huong gia uu dai va chinh sach ho tro tu chu dau tu.
Dang ky nhan thong tin mo ban